Introduction
The 4% rule is the cornerstone of the FIRE movement—a simple rule of thumb (or heuristic) to calculate how much you need to retire. It's easy to see why it's so popular: it's straightforward, intuitive, and provides a tangible target for those pursuing financial independence.
At MoneyOnFire, we love the simplicity of the 4% rule. However, we found it has serious shortcomings, especially when applied to real-life finances. In particular, it doesn't account for the tax treatment of different accounts—leading to underestimated FIRE numbers.
That's why we've replaced it with a more sophisticated calculation. In this post, we'll break down what the 4% rule is, where it shines, where it falls short, and how MOF calculates a more accurate number.
What Is the 4% Rule?
The 4% rule, based on the Trinity Study, is a guideline suggesting you can safely withdraw 4% of your investment portfolio annually in retirement without running out of money. For example:
If you have $1 million in FIRE assets, you could withdraw $40,000 per year forever (4% of $1M).
Why We Love the 4% Rule
- Simplicity: It's easy to understand and apply. It gives people a clear and tangible target to shoot for.
- Historical evidence: The rule is grounded in historical market performance, making it a reasonable estimate for many scenarios.
Why We Hate the 4% Rule
While the 4% rule is a great starting point, it has some critical flaws that can lead to inaccurate FIRE numbers:
- Ignores tax implications: Different accounts are taxed differently. Your location in retirement also affects your tax burden, which impacts how much of your withdrawal you actually keep.
- Overlooks debt: The rule doesn't account for liabilities like mortgages or other debts, which directly affect your cash flow and financial flexibility.
- Inflation assumptions are simplistic: The rule assumes expenses are static. In reality, inflation means you'll need to recalculate every year.
A Simplified Example
Imagine two people who both want $40,000 per year in retirement.
- Bob builds a $1M portfolio entirely in Roth accounts. Since Roth dollars are post-tax, he can withdraw $40K/year tax-free. The 4% rule holds.
- Carter, who lives in California, builds a $1M portfolio in a mix of 401(k) and taxable accounts. These are taxed on withdrawal, so his take-home income is less than $40K/year.
In Carter's case, the 4% rule underestimates what he needs—he might actually need $1.3M to get the same after-tax income Bob does.
How MoneyOnFire Improves the 4% Rule
At MOF, we aim to calculate the most accurate FIRE number possible by going beyond simple heuristics. Here's how:
- We account for taxes: Our algorithm factors in the unique tax treatment of each account type.
- We subtract debts: Your FIRE number should reflect your net worth, not just your assets.
- We stay conservative: MOF starts with the 4% rule but adjusts for taxes, inflation, and other factors to keep your plan safe and realistic.
Conclusion
At MoneyOnFire, we respect the 4% rule for the clarity and motivation it provides—but we also know it's just the beginning.
By building on this foundation with smarter, personalized, and more accurate calculations, we help you turn a rough guess into a real plan. If you've been relying on the 4% rule alone, it's time to take your FIRE strategy to the next level with MOF.